https://www.milantorres.com Regional bank analysis: KRE ETF regime tracking, 34-bank P/TBV and ROTCE dashboard, and per-stock Q1 2026 earnings commentary for FHN, MTB, CFG, TFC, RF, FNB, ZION, AUB, PNFP, BOKF, EWBC, WAL, and HBAN. By Milan Torres. en-us © 2026 Milan Torres. Working thoughts, not advice. Mon, 11 May 2026 23:08:40 +0000 Tue, 05 May 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.rssboard.org/rss-specification milantorres-rss-builder/1.0 rss@milantorres.com (Milan Torres) rss@milantorres.com (Milan Torres) https://www.milantorres.com/regionals?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=regionals-feed#kre-event-driven-price-regimes https://www.milantorres.com/regionals#kre-event-driven-price-regimes Tue, 05 May 2026 12:00:00 +0000 regionals State Street KRE event-driven price levels with 10-year and 2-year standard deviation bands. Regime averages anchored to SVB (3/9/23, $45.62), soft CPI (7/11/24, $59.68), strong jobs (11/20/25, $67.59), and high PPI (2/27/26). Latest close 5/4/26 at $68.99; 4/17/26 intra-day spike to $71.44 on Iran/Hormuz news. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/regionals?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=regionals-feed#regionals-dashboard https://www.milantorres.com/regionals#regionals-dashboard Tue, 05 May 2026 12:00:00 +0000 regionals Quarterly P/TBV and ROTCE for 34 regional banks plus a composite line for all 34, from Q1 2020 to Q1 2026. Dashboard updated through Q1 2026 and now optimized for mobile. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/aub?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=regionals-feed https://www.milantorres.com/aub Thu, 23 Apr 2026 12:00:00 +0000 regionals CEO John Asbury: the back-book fixed-rate loan repricing is the continuing driver of NIM expansion through the year. Retiring CFO Rob Gorman estimates the Basel III proposal would reduce risk-weighted assets by 6%-6.5%, translating to a 65-75 bps increase in the CET1 ratio. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/bokf?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=regionals-feed https://www.milantorres.com/bokf Thu, 23 Apr 2026 12:00:00 +0000 regionals CFO Martin Grunst: fixed-rate asset repricing — bond portfolio and fixed-rate loan portfolio — is the durable driver of margin expansion. Recasting this quarter's 2.90% margin with portfolio mature rates of ~4.50% would put margin a little over 3.15%. Basel III LTV parameters are expected to benefit the real-estate-secured loan book. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/ewbc?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=regionals-feed https://www.milantorres.com/ewbc Thu, 23 Apr 2026 12:00:00 +0000 regionals CFO Chris Del Moral-Niles: incremental deposit pressure offset by loans yielding higher for longer; expects better NII and slightly better NIM than previously projected. CEO Dominic Ng commentary on loan growth; the bank's NDFI capital-call lending is the distinctive angle here. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/wal?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=regionals-feed https://www.milantorres.com/wal Thu, 23 Apr 2026 12:00:00 +0000 regionals ROTCE 9.5%, P/TBV 1.03. CEO Kenneth Vecchione: largely variable-rate loan portfolio benefits from no expected rate cuts this year. $152.5M in charge-offs across two loans (Leucadia/First Brands and Cantor Group V); audio excerpt features Piper Sandler's Matthew Clark pressing on the personal guarantee recovery question while ultra-high-net-worth guarantors are in litigation with each other. $120.4M repurchased at avg $76.55 against a $300M authorization. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/hban?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=regionals-feed https://www.milantorres.com/hban Thu, 23 Apr 2026 12:00:00 +0000 regionals ROTCE 10.5%, P/TBV 1.72. Q1 2026 outlook unchanged, 30% EPS growth guide through 2027, Basel III endgame ~7.7% RWA relief and ~80 bps CET1 benefit. Audio excerpt features UBS Erika Najarian compounding three questions on what the market is missing; CFO Zach Wasserman on a new $3B buyback authorization vs. the $550M near-term plan; CEO Steve Steinour cites Middle East issues as the driver for higher cash at the Fed. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/pnfp?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=regionals-feed https://www.milantorres.com/pnfp Wed, 22 Apr 2026 12:00:00 +0000 regionals CEO Kevin Blair on NDFI exposure: 9% of loans ($7B) with only $1.7B (under 2%) in private credit. The largest piece is structured lending ($3.4B), which has not produced a single charge-off in seven years and has not had an NPA since 2019. Synovus merger integration is depressing reported ROTCE. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/zion?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=regionals-feed https://www.milantorres.com/zion Tue, 21 Apr 2026 12:00:00 +0000 regionals CFO Ryan Richards: if the March 31 forward curve plays out with no rate changes, NII growth of about 7%-8% would exceed guide; Basel III endgame implies positive RWA outcomes for the franchise. CEO Harris Simmons: roughly 25% improvement in real assets per employee since 2008 even with headcount down 20%; AI may accelerate the productivity trend. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/tfc?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=regionals-feed https://www.milantorres.com/tfc Fri, 17 Apr 2026 12:00:00 +0000 regionals CFO Mike Maguire on the 4/17/26 call: NDFI represented 12% of total loans as of March 31; the largest NDFI exposure is diversified equity REITs secured by income-producing real estate. Private credit exposure through BDCs and middle-market loan funds totals about 1% of the portfolio. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/rf?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=regionals-feed https://www.milantorres.com/rf Fri, 17 Apr 2026 12:00:00 +0000 regionals CFO Anil Chada on the 4/17/26 call: expects a Q2 rebound of approximately 2% NII growth and additional expansion in subsequent quarters, driven by fixed-rate asset turnover, seasonal deposit inflows, accelerating loan growth, and funding cost discipline in a stable Fed Funds environment. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/mtb?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=regionals-feed https://www.milantorres.com/mtb Thu, 16 Apr 2026 12:00:00 +0000 regionals Quarterly ROTCE and P/TBV from 03/31/20 to 03/31/26. CFO Daryl Bible commentary on CRE, warehouse, and FHA sub-servicing on the Q1 2026 call. CRE comments tie back to the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/cfg?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=regionals-feed https://www.milantorres.com/cfg Thu, 16 Apr 2026 12:00:00 +0000 regionals CEO Bruce Van Saun on Squawk on the Street 4/16/26: NIM and NII should rise quarterly, the bank is slightly asset-sensitive. Ted Swimmer on the same-day earnings call: private credit demand has not decreased and is broad outside of technology and software. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/fnb?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=regionals-feed https://www.milantorres.com/fnb Thu, 16 Apr 2026 12:00:00 +0000 regionals CFO Vince Calabrese on the 4/16/26 call: 8% quarterly common dividend increase — first Q1 dividend increase since 2007 — with TCE near 9% and CET1 at 11.4%. CEO Vince Delie: loan growth driven by core middle-market C&I, not NDFI or private credit, a category the company continues to avoid. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/fhn?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=regionals-feed https://www.milantorres.com/fhn Wed, 15 Apr 2026 12:00:00 +0000 regionals Quarterly ROTCE and P/TBV from 03/31/20 to 03/31/26. CFO Hope Dmuchowski on the 4/15/26 earnings call: '6% more NII year-over-year with 3% balance growth in a decreasing rate environment.' Earnings call excerpts from CEO Bryan Jordan and CCO Thomas Hung. Milan Torres