https://www.milantorres.com Working thoughts on banking, policy, markets, and economy. The full firehose across regional banks, Federal Reserve commentary, private credit, banking legislation, inflation, jobs, Tesla, and asset allocation. Sources linked. Not financial advice. By Milan Torres. en-us © 2026 Milan Torres. Working thoughts, not advice. Mon, 11 May 2026 23:08:40 +0000 Fri, 08 May 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.rssboard.org/rss-specification milantorres-rss-builder/1.0 rss@milantorres.com (Milan Torres) rss@milantorres.com (Milan Torres) https://www.milantorres.com/jobs?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed#Section%203 https://www.milantorres.com/jobs#Section%203 Fri, 08 May 2026 12:00:00 +0000 economy April 2026 jobs report (5/8/26): 115K nonfarm payrolls, unemployment unchanged at 4.3%, March revised up 7K and February revised down 23K. Last 12 months saw five months of job losses. Private education & health services led both 12-month and 10-year sector growth; federal ex-postal service was both the biggest % and biggest # decliner over both windows. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/jobs?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed#computer-%26-electronic-product-manufacturing https://www.milantorres.com/jobs#computer-%26-electronic-product-manufacturing Fri, 08 May 2026 12:00:00 +0000 economy Computer & Electronic Product Manufacturing payrolls were ~1.02M in 2016 (0.71% of nonfarm) and ~990K in 2026 (0.62%, -3.1%), against total nonfarm payrolls that grew 10.4%. Real output for the same industry rose from $238B in 2016 to a $300B peak in 2021 (+26.1%), then declined each year through 2024 to $287B (-4.3% from peak, +20.6% from 2016). Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/tesla?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed https://www.milantorres.com/tesla Thu, 07 May 2026 12:00:00 +0000 tesla Tesla China posted a record April NEV wholesale figure per the China Passenger Car Association, and NHTSA announced the 2026 Model Y is the first vehicle to pass the new Advanced Driver Assistance System tests. TSLA closed 5/7/26 at $411.79 — above both the post-election regime average ($366.35) and the safety-probe-to-pre-delivery regime average ($408.73) for the first time since the 4/22/26 earnings call. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/regionals?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed#kre-event-driven-price-regimes https://www.milantorres.com/regionals#kre-event-driven-price-regimes Tue, 05 May 2026 12:00:00 +0000 regionals State Street KRE event-driven price levels with 10-year and 2-year standard deviation bands. Regime averages anchored to SVB (3/9/23, $45.62), soft CPI (7/11/24, $59.68), strong jobs (11/20/25, $67.59), and high PPI (2/27/26). Latest close 5/4/26 at $68.99; 4/17/26 intra-day spike to $71.44 on Iran/Hormuz news. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/regionals?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed#regionals-dashboard https://www.milantorres.com/regionals#regionals-dashboard Tue, 05 May 2026 12:00:00 +0000 regionals Quarterly P/TBV and ROTCE for 34 regional banks plus a composite line for all 34, from Q1 2020 to Q1 2026. Dashboard updated through Q1 2026 and now optimized for mobile. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/jobs?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed https://www.milantorres.com/jobs Fri, 01 May 2026 12:00:00 +0000 economy March 2026 jobs report (released 4/3/26): 178K nonfarm payrolls — the strongest month in the trailing year — unemployment 4.3%, average hourly earnings +3.5% year-over-year. Q1 2026 Employment Cost Index (released 4/30/26): total compensation growth at 3.4% year-over-year, decelerated from a mid-2022 peak of 5.1%; the wages-and-benefits gap has essentially closed. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/private-markets?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed https://www.milantorres.com/private-markets Thu, 30 Apr 2026 12:00:00 +0000 policy Newest KKR 40-APP amendment filed 4/27/26 adds Muskoka JV LLC. Gundlach on the 4/29/26 Closing Bell predicting 'humungous withdrawal requests' from interval funds around what he calls the Ides of June. Weisenthal and Alloway on the 4/30/26 OddLots on the rising value of on-the-ground information that hasn't yet become AI training data. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/inflation?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed https://www.milantorres.com/inflation Thu, 30 Apr 2026 12:00:00 +0000 economy March 2026 PCE through three windows: gasoline accounted for 42% of the monthly spending increase (81.3 of 195.4 = 41.6%); gasoline is about 2.3% of total PCE; 3-, 6-, and 12-month annualized rates show Total PCE at 5.6% / 4.3% / 3.5% and Core at 4.4% / 3.7% / 3.2%. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/aub?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed https://www.milantorres.com/aub Thu, 23 Apr 2026 12:00:00 +0000 regionals CEO John Asbury: the back-book fixed-rate loan repricing is the continuing driver of NIM expansion through the year. Retiring CFO Rob Gorman estimates the Basel III proposal would reduce risk-weighted assets by 6%-6.5%, translating to a 65-75 bps increase in the CET1 ratio. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/bokf?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed https://www.milantorres.com/bokf Thu, 23 Apr 2026 12:00:00 +0000 regionals CFO Martin Grunst: fixed-rate asset repricing — bond portfolio and fixed-rate loan portfolio — is the durable driver of margin expansion. Recasting this quarter's 2.90% margin with portfolio mature rates of ~4.50% would put margin a little over 3.15%. Basel III LTV parameters are expected to benefit the real-estate-secured loan book. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/ewbc?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed https://www.milantorres.com/ewbc Thu, 23 Apr 2026 12:00:00 +0000 regionals CFO Chris Del Moral-Niles: incremental deposit pressure offset by loans yielding higher for longer; expects better NII and slightly better NIM than previously projected. CEO Dominic Ng commentary on loan growth; the bank's NDFI capital-call lending is the distinctive angle here. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/wal?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed https://www.milantorres.com/wal Thu, 23 Apr 2026 12:00:00 +0000 regionals ROTCE 9.5%, P/TBV 1.03. CEO Kenneth Vecchione: largely variable-rate loan portfolio benefits from no expected rate cuts this year. $152.5M in charge-offs across two loans (Leucadia/First Brands and Cantor Group V); audio excerpt features Piper Sandler's Matthew Clark pressing on the personal guarantee recovery question while ultra-high-net-worth guarantors are in litigation with each other. $120.4M repurchased at avg $76.55 against a $300M authorization. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/hban?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed https://www.milantorres.com/hban Thu, 23 Apr 2026 12:00:00 +0000 regionals ROTCE 10.5%, P/TBV 1.72. Q1 2026 outlook unchanged, 30% EPS growth guide through 2027, Basel III endgame ~7.7% RWA relief and ~80 bps CET1 benefit. Audio excerpt features UBS Erika Najarian compounding three questions on what the market is missing; CFO Zach Wasserman on a new $3B buyback authorization vs. the $550M near-term plan; CEO Steve Steinour cites Middle East issues as the driver for higher cash at the Fed. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/tesla?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed https://www.milantorres.com/tesla Wed, 22 Apr 2026 12:00:00 +0000 tesla Q1 2026 earnings announcement; battleground sits between $366.35 (avg high: post-election to pre-safety probe) and $408.73 (avg low: safety probe to pre-delivery report). Includes Jeremy Grantham on The Master Investor (4/19/26) and Jeffrey Hirsch with Steve Eisman on The Real Eisman Playbook (4/20/26) on market patterns and repetitive human behavior. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/pnfp?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed https://www.milantorres.com/pnfp Wed, 22 Apr 2026 12:00:00 +0000 regionals CEO Kevin Blair on NDFI exposure: 9% of loans ($7B) with only $1.7B (under 2%) in private credit. The largest piece is structured lending ($3.4B), which has not produced a single charge-off in seven years and has not had an NPA since 2019. Synovus merger integration is depressing reported ROTCE. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/zion?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed https://www.milantorres.com/zion Tue, 21 Apr 2026 12:00:00 +0000 regionals CFO Ryan Richards: if the March 31 forward curve plays out with no rate changes, NII growth of about 7%-8% would exceed guide; Basel III endgame implies positive RWA outcomes for the franchise. CEO Harris Simmons: roughly 25% improvement in real assets per employee since 2008 even with headcount down 20%; AI may accelerate the productivity trend. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/banking?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed https://www.milantorres.com/banking Fri, 17 Apr 2026 12:00:00 +0000 banking NDFI loans to business credit intermediaries as a share of total loans: 8 GSIBs combined at 4.8% ($234.6B) and 34 KRE Top-50% banks at 2.5% ($49.1B), as of 12/31/25. Steve Eisman on the 4/17/26 Real Steve Eisman Playbook: regional banks in the KRE ETF have very little private credit exposure. Charts also break down NDFI by category (mortgage 24%, business 23%, PE 20%) and by individual G-SIB. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/tfc?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed https://www.milantorres.com/tfc Fri, 17 Apr 2026 12:00:00 +0000 regionals CFO Mike Maguire on the 4/17/26 call: NDFI represented 12% of total loans as of March 31; the largest NDFI exposure is diversified equity REITs secured by income-producing real estate. Private credit exposure through BDCs and middle-market loan funds totals about 1% of the portfolio. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/rf?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed https://www.milantorres.com/rf Fri, 17 Apr 2026 12:00:00 +0000 regionals CFO Anil Chada on the 4/17/26 call: expects a Q2 rebound of approximately 2% NII growth and additional expansion in subsequent quarters, driven by fixed-rate asset turnover, seasonal deposit inflows, accelerating loan growth, and funding cost discipline in a stable Fed Funds environment. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/mtb?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed https://www.milantorres.com/mtb Thu, 16 Apr 2026 12:00:00 +0000 regionals Quarterly ROTCE and P/TBV from 03/31/20 to 03/31/26. CFO Daryl Bible commentary on CRE, warehouse, and FHA sub-servicing on the Q1 2026 call. CRE comments tie back to the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/cfg?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed https://www.milantorres.com/cfg Thu, 16 Apr 2026 12:00:00 +0000 regionals CEO Bruce Van Saun on Squawk on the Street 4/16/26: NIM and NII should rise quarterly, the bank is slightly asset-sensitive. Ted Swimmer on the same-day earnings call: private credit demand has not decreased and is broad outside of technology and software. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/fnb?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed https://www.milantorres.com/fnb Thu, 16 Apr 2026 12:00:00 +0000 regionals CFO Vince Calabrese on the 4/16/26 call: 8% quarterly common dividend increase — first Q1 dividend increase since 2007 — with TCE near 9% and CET1 at 11.4%. CEO Vince Delie: loan growth driven by core middle-market C&I, not NDFI or private credit, a category the company continues to avoid. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/private-markets?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed https://www.milantorres.com/private-markets Wed, 15 Apr 2026 12:00:00 +0000 policy Two KKR funds with gated redemptions (K-FIT, K-ABF) need permission to co-invest via 40-APP filings. The pending application adds two Capital Group interval funds alongside KKR entities. Risk hasn't disappeared — it has redistributed through small banks (traditional lending), large banks (NDFI), insurers, and now potentially 401(k) participants. If bank regulators already touch most of the funding chain, why not let them follow it all the way through? Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/fhn?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed https://www.milantorres.com/fhn Wed, 15 Apr 2026 12:00:00 +0000 regionals Quarterly ROTCE and P/TBV from 03/31/20 to 03/31/26. CFO Hope Dmuchowski on the 4/15/26 earnings call: '6% more NII year-over-year with 3% balance growth in a decreasing rate environment.' Earnings call excerpts from CEO Bryan Jordan and CCO Thomas Hung. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/asset-allocation?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed#60%2F40 https://www.milantorres.com/asset-allocation#60%2F40 Mon, 30 Mar 2026 12:00:00 +0000 asset-allocation Powell at Harvard 3/30/26 on fat tails; Wapner on CNBC 3/30/26 calling it the 60/40's worst month since 2022. Comparison of 2020 and 2025 target date funds (Fidelity, JPM, American Funds, Vanguard, BlackRock, T. Rowe Price) across 2022 and YTD 2026. Bond ladders may better address sequence-of-returns risk than diversified bond funds during distribution; Bengen's 4% rule depended on bonds doing their job. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/fed?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed#warsh-powell-fat-tails https://www.milantorres.com/fed#warsh-powell-fat-tails Mon, 30 Mar 2026 12:00:00 +0000 policy Warsh at a Senate hearing on taking out tail risks and one-off items to assess second-order price effects. Powell at Harvard 3/30/26: 'however fat you think they are, they're fatter than that.' Snapshot of the Federal Reserve February 1975 GreenBook — the first FOMC document to include the measure of inflation excluding food and energy. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/asset-allocation?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed https://www.milantorres.com/asset-allocation Fri, 27 Mar 2026 12:00:00 +0000 asset-allocation Term premium on the 10-year zero coupon bond from above 2% in the early 1990s, going negative in 2020, currently 0.72% as of 3/27/26. Source: Federal Reserve Board three-factor nominal term structure model via FRED series THREEFYTP10. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/road-act?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed https://www.milantorres.com/road-act Wed, 25 Mar 2026 12:00:00 +0000 policy Senate version's Section 205 conditions federal community development dollars on housing production (10% docking). Section 901 explicitly exempts build-to-rent with a 7-year disposal requirement that REITs may avoid via the prohibited transaction tax exemption. Senate amendment bans Fed CBDC (sunsets 2030); House version discusses community banks. Includes the Housing Supply Entity Map interactive. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/banking?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed#ndfi-vs-traditional-lending https://www.milantorres.com/banking#ndfi-vs-traditional-lending Thu, 19 Mar 2026 12:00:00 +0000 banking Governor Cook at the 3/19/26 Fed Banking Reform open meeting reserved judgment on whether granular Basel III calibrations are risk-sensitive when NDFI exposures lack visibility. Excluding NDFI, small banks have lent ~$1T more in traditional loans over ten years; large banks have lent ~$849B more to NDFIs over the same period. Governor Barr dissented to the proposed changes. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/inflation?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed https://www.milantorres.com/inflation Sun, 01 Feb 2026 12:00:00 +0000 economy PCE inflation and the gap between All Commodities PPI and Final Demand PPI tend to rise and fall together, reflecting shared inflationary pressure across producers and consumers. Rough proxy using NSA data, not a formal forecast. Sources: BEA, BLS via FRED. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/inflation?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed https://www.milantorres.com/inflation Thu, 15 Jan 2026 12:00:00 +0000 economy Interactive tool that lets you slide month-over-month and year-over-year scenarios across PCE categories using BEA Tables 2.8.5 and 2.8.4. Designed to show how big monthly category swings can be against more stable categories like housing, utilities, financial services, and insurance. Milan Torres https://www.milantorres.com/sophieandharold?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=home-feed#sophieandharold-video https://www.milantorres.com/sophieandharold#sophieandharold-video Thu, 15 Jan 2026 12:00:00 +0000 fun Both Sophie and Harold reach a million dollars on $15 a day, but Sophie saves for 10 years then stops while Harold waits 10 years and then saves for 30. Even though Harold contributes three times as much, Sophie's earlier start means compound interest works longer in her favor, and she comes out ahead. 1-minute frame-by-frame animation. Milan Torres